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Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Extreme climate after massive eruption of Alaska’s Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom | PNAS

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Alaska's Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom

Joseph R. McConnell, Michael Sigl, Gill Plunkett, Andrea Burke, Woon Mi Kim, Christoph C. Raible, Andrew I. Wilson, Joseph G. Manning, Francis Ludlow, Nathan J. Chellman, Helen M. Innes, Zhen Yang, Jessica F. Larsen, Janet R. Schaefer, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, Frank Wilhelms, Thomas Opel, Hanno Meyer, and Jørgen Peder Steffensen
  1. Edited by Ellen Mosley-Thompson, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, and approved May 20, 2020 (received for review March 6, 2020)

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The first century BCE fall of the Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom and subsequent rise of the Roman Empire were among the most important political transitions in the history of Western civilization. Volcanic fallout in well-dated Arctic ice core records, climate proxies, and Earth system modeling show that this transition occurred during an extreme cold period resulting from a massive eruption of Alaska's Okmok volcano early in 43 BCE. Written sources describe unusual climate, crop failures, famine, disease, and unrest in the Mediterranean immediately following the eruption—suggesting significant vulnerability to hydroclimatic shocks in otherwise sophisticated and powerful ancient states. Such shocks must be seen as having played a role in the historical developments for which the period is famed.


The assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE triggered a power struggle that ultimately ended the Roman Republic and, eventually, the Ptolemaic Kingdom, leading to the rise of the Roman Empire. Climate proxies and written documents indicate that this struggle occurred during a period of unusually inclement weather, famine, and disease in the Mediterranean region; historians have previously speculated that a large volcanic eruption of unknown origin was the most likely cause. Here we show using well-dated volcanic fallout records in six Arctic ice cores that one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past 2,500 y occurred in early 43 BCE, with distinct geochemistry of tephra deposited during the event identifying the Okmok volcano in Alaska as the source. Climate proxy records show that 43 and 42 BCE were among the coldest years of recent millennia in the Northern Hemisphere at the start of one of the coldest decades. Earth system modeling suggests that radiative forcing from this massive, high-latitude eruption led to pronounced changes in hydroclimate, including seasonal temperatures in specific Mediterranean regions as much as 7 °C below normal during the 2 y period following the eruption and unusually wet conditions. While it is difficult to establish direct causal linkages to thinly documented historical events, the wet and very cold conditions from this massive eruption on the opposite side of Earth probably resulted in crop failures, famine, and disease, exacerbating social unrest and contributing to political realignments throughout the Mediterranean region at this critical juncture of Western civilization.


  • Author contributions: J.R.M., M.S., and C.C.R. designed research; J.R.M., M.S., G.P., A.B., W.M.K., N.J.C., H.M.I., J.F.L., J.R.S., S.K., S.M., F.W., T.O., H.M., and J.P.S. performed research; J.R.M., M.S., N.J.C., and Z.Y. analyzed data; and J.R.M., G.P., W.M.K., C.C.R., A.I.W., J.G.M., F.L., and N.J.C. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no competing interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • This article contains supporting information online at

Published under the PNAS license.

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